Last nights special election in Ohio if not for the Green Party’s whacked out candidate, Joe Manchik. I watched video of the guy and it was like an Un-Funny Seth Rogen Bit. He definitely owns a dry herb vaporizer and is the most stoned person currently on earth if you’ve seen him try to express himself. Useless as a politician, but probably an unwitting pawn of Putin. i say unwitting because I think Putin’s too professional to let this fake know anything. I mean- look at the guy! He claims to speak 19 languages including Esperanto and Sheet Music! COME ON! If you voted for this guy its time to think over your views. Did you see him at all? He’s nuts.
In an official campaign skype conference with some sort of ‘media’ in a supposed bid to be a congressman? ThisHAS to be Putin Punk-ing us!
Unwitting Kremlin asset Joe Manchik
The Ohio 12th Congressional, ruby-red for all but 4 years since 1935, is too close to call a full day out. The Republican guy, Balderson, ran as a Trumpist and even said some stupid stuff about the character of people from a part of his own district. One of the most disturbing Trump rallies yet was even in play to help Balderson out but he couldn’t put it away. He currently has a lead about 1,700 votes over my fellow Irish American Democrat, Danny O’Connor.
Quick cultural note- Dont look for O’Connor to back off on a recount. When Irish people get angry or lose in a competition we feel slighted in; we fight back, hard. The pipes havent played for Danny Boy O’Connor yet. He may still prevail.
The Green Party- Sketchy Spoilers
Unqualified Green Party weird Joe Manchik picked up 1,127 votes
In a race separated so the few votes siphoned off by the Green Party are probably gonna end up determining what happens, really hurting the Left again. It’s a consistent pattern since they gave us George W Bush, the loser of the actual election and started to make this dangerous stuff look normal. It’s not normal. The Green candidate proves that in this election more than ever.
We Can’t allow these flakey likely traitors play spoiler anymore. I’ve rescued one Green already. He’s happy with The Working Families Party and doesn’t miss sketchy Jill Stein’s weird ideas.
The Green Party’s been looking sketch for some time. I think they’re probably as bad for America as the NRA.
To those still voting Green I say- What The Hell? This party has lost its way long ago and is most likely a Left Wing arm of Putin’s campaign to divide America. Please, you need to just stop blowing up elections and getting half assed semi illegitimate presidents elected by splitting the Left
To all on the political Left I urge you- vote Democrat in 2018 and we’ll run these fascists out of out government and impeach Trump
As evidence I have only the entirety of everything Jill Stein says, seemingly purposely divisive. She’s only hanging out with what we can call a pretty much admitted Kremlin spy, Flynn , at the infamous dinner where Flynn led the standing ovation, in his general’s uniform, for Putin.
Jill Stein is possibly a Russian asset and a traitor. It’s hard for me to believe anything else, really
Oh and seriously, don’t donate any money to these clowns. It’s basically like giving it to Putin. Another alternative Left party with some better ideas, like the Social Democrats or the Working Families Party, which seem much more authentic, will fill the void. They also play much nicer and work with the actual Democrats, pulling the whole party in a progressive direction. The Greens just want to pull us apart.
We don’t need these sketchy maybe traitors stirring the pot anymore. Personally I agree with the German Film Look Who’s Back in the assertion that were Hitler to somehow come back he’d like the Green Party right off the bat.
Is Trump the least popular president ever? A simple”No” doesn’t cover it anymore. Now we can only respond; “Depends how you measure it.”
Underwater Yet Still Sinking
Trump started out below 50% on day one, back at the “Biggest Inauguration in History” where the protest marches outdrew his swearing in by a HUGE margin. In fact the one year anniversary protest marches against trump also did better so far as turnout as any Trump event of any kind yet.
The fact is Trump has only flirted with 50% briefly and distantly. Trump trashes the people who are opposed or turned off by him just like he trashed the girl who would didn’t fuck him in High School. In other words- Suddenly its something you never wanted and no one would ever want? 2 minutes ago you thought she was hot.
This would probably be easier to accept if were more spectacular. Lets face it people NOT doing something can be hard to put a compelling picture up of. So the TV news doesn’t do cover it like they might if they had some juicy video.
The only poll that really has decades of history is Gallup. It may be flawed to a
In most ways our least popular ever president, Harry Truman.
degree, but it seemed to be about accurate on election day when votes were cast. FACT-Hillary got a lot more votes but lost due to our Arcane systems fatal Republican President Making Flaw known as The Electoral College.
The fact is- Gallup AND the Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls NEVER show the president at 50% or higher in popularity.
The Lowest For The Longest
If Trump’s NOT the lowest for the longest just give it time. Until now it was Harry S Truman holding the All Time Lowest Presidential Approval ratings.
Here’s some overview how that happened;
The beginning of Truman’s presidency is one of the worst days in presidential history as Franklin Delano Roosevelt has to die to cause it. Deep into a world war Americans were unfamiliar with their not so eloquent president. He made either President Bush seem very charismatic.
In Truman’s case dropping the atomic bombs on Japan starts him out looking like a brutal killer or a total wimp. Irony of ironies. Half America resents the dropping of the bombs, the other half think he should have dropped more. So his first decision just divides everyone.
For Truman dropping the Bomb and following FDR are just too much to absorb for most.
Politics and use of military force in Korea further divided the public on Truman. The Korean War was a problem simply because we couldn’t will it to an end in a few weeks. Its also a questionable war. Truman feuded with the Theater Commander MacArthur and MacArthur took it public. Plus we’re starting to come to terms with the Segregation issue at home.
Harry Truman never caught a break publicity wise.
If you dislike Trump the Bad News is despite this Truman keeps getting elected. The Good News? Trump will almost definitely NOT be able to replicate the level of personal engagement Truman gutted out in the extensive Whistle Stop Tour to get re-elected. It showed poise, control and determination. Truman just had more character than Trump.
Look at the gargantuan effort Truman put in-
The approximate route of Truman’s 1948 Whistle Stop Tour.
Truman gets by mostly on shoe leather, one of his re-election tours featured him doing whats been called whistle-stop tour. Basically he took a train to as many small towns as possible and formed a bond with enough average people to get around the bad polls and win. I don’t know if a Tweet or a series of tweets has the same effect.
The Numbers Now
Trump is sickening everyone by already campaigning for 2020 but he probably has to. The real question is how much of that is based on his craziness and need for approval? Like Hitler he seems to need to really kill it at a good rally to buoy his spirits
14 months in Trump is about 5% below what he had on Inauguration Day. 14 months below 50% has happened but below 46%? And constantly ‘bottoming out’ with dips into 30s?
It’s not as bad as ‘The Last Days of Bush” yet, but soon he will absolutely be the president who had the lowest approval for the longest time.
Real Clear Politics Aggregate Poll as of March 11, 2018
The Very Worst?
Again, Truman or George W Bush own the all time low approval, with low 20’s as the nation waited out the end of their careers. Viewed as term-limited lame ducks who pointlessly started wars of choice they were loathed at the end. That’s the big difference. They had been president for awhile and just wore out their welcome.
Trump’s White House Home Invasion is only 2 months into year 2.
How Could it Get Worse?
A war would probably be enough to drop Trump to very lowest ever, say in the mid teens approval wise sespite the apparent ‘staying power’ in the 30% range.
If the level of prosperity drops off or there’s trouble for any prolonged time with the Stock Market Trump’s number will tumble.
An irresponsibly done tax cut that was widely criticized only bought Trump a few weeks in the mid forties in approval.
The Mueller Probe could send Trump’s approval plummeting but not like screwing the pooch with a war or if he gets his Wall built.
The 30% core followers are members of Cult 45 and will not change their minds no matter how much proof Mueller comes up with. This may not be enough to save Trump from Impeachment and Jail, only another hacked election seems capable of stopping that.
Is This Historic Yet?
Yes. It’s too low for too long.
Trump definitely could rescue Harry Truman from “Least Popular President Ever”.
The slightest shifts in the situation in America or on the Korean Peninsula (or any number of other places) could devastate his approval ratings in mere hours.
By devastate we mean dip to say the mid to high twenties. And something like 70% disapproval. And it could go on for two or three years.
It’s not clear how he can govern at all with the increasing strain of NEVER having so much of America approve of him.
W Says Thanks
Already no longer the dumbest president ever, George W Bush must be relieved.
Trump’s approval rating is routinely in striking distance of the W Bush All Time Low of 31.9%. He Will Beat it sooner or later. Ditto for Trump’s proximity to Bush’s all time high DISAPPROVAL of 64.8% that same week in September 2008.
The big difference is George W Bush’s big fall comes as a lame duck playing out the string. Trump is only 14 months in.
When He’s Up it Temporary, when He’s Down it Stays
Probably the constant idiocy and fascist-like talk and tweets prevent trump from rising to 50% approval.
The problem is that the failure is now baked in. Trump looks foolish regularly. His ‘outreach’ to the other side politically is always a line in the sand. He can’t work towards a consensus. He has that 30% and if he does everything right and keeps quiet for a few days he sometimes rises close to 40 but that’s a hard ceiling.
With a lot more people disinterested in politics than in the past the disengagement of about 10% of everyone helps Trump a bit too.
Low to mid 30’s are probably going to be a fact of life for this president, for however long he lasts.
And just for score keeping – the most popular ever president is George H W Bush right after the Gulf War starts. Off the top of my head i think he makes it over 80% approval. He failed to be re-elected. So that makes his the hugest drop-off ever.
In the last couple of weeks my least favorite Trumpkin, Steve Bannon, has come out of the internet sewer he lives in to take a shot at selling the people of Alabama on electing, of all things, a pedophile to the United States Senate. It didn’t go so well.
When everyone still thought Moore would win Bannon showed up and tried to bully sitting senators, like old Turtle Boy McConnell. He really made a point of praising Moore, a Fragging Candidate during the Vietnam War. It was really hard to watch. Mostly because Bannon seemed powerful and it was frightening. Would he REALLY cajole these crazy rednecks into voting for a Child Molester? It seemed as though he could.
The man in the 30 dollar jacket
Then he didn’t. Immediately my view of Bannon reverted to what it had been before, minus a lot of anxiety about his so called ‘charisma’.
Still, I got few problems with Bannon.
First off, whys he gotta be Irish? Seems since JFK any kind of liberal Irish politicians are few and far between. They’re universally sociopathic Republicans.
Then we have what we could call “A Perpetuation of the Stereotypes” going on. Every Irish person with a conscience tries to COVER for how much they drink, even if it’s not that much in the first place. We’re always put down for that as a race. Weeks past a mandatory haircut, perpetually with 10 o’clock shadow, Bannon looks like Otis the
Otis the Drunk
Drunk from the old Andy Griffith Show plus 10 more years of hard drinking. He’s a walking stereotype of the most intolerant, uneducated cab driver at the lowlife bar. I don’t CARE if he went to Harvard, he managed to avoid learning anything there.
Is he on pills? is THAT why he’s so insensitive? Mottled with Gin Blossoms across his face and with a voice that,yes, absolutely fits. I’m always surprised he’s not slurring. Thanks for disgracing the race, Bannon.
On his soapbox he actually is more at home. Free and easy with awful things that set the nation back every time he opens his whiskey hole, he actually is a competent speaker….if you don’t look at him too long or too closely.
His Charisma, such as it is, is finite, thankfully. His milieu is too incongruous and it only works just so often. Maybe it doesn’t even work at all without outside help, be it from Trump or if the Russians cut out middle man and do business with him directly. Whatever is going on the facade is not the greatest and people do balk.
More Dr Morell than Hitler, he just looks like Hell. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want him to start jogging or dieting! Let high cholesterol carry him away tonight!
He’s a divider, and he’s had his day, but maybe, just maybe reason is returning to America (or arriving for first time) ?
Til now it seemed he was probably a soothsayer of some ability. He had, after all been able to conjure up Presidential support for the candidate he initially picked and who then beat Trump’s guy Luther Strange for the GOP senate nomination. When he out predicted his old boss it was sort of scary.
No matter what the situation, for instance somehow selling Trump to at least some people and giving him some policy, bad as it was, Bannon had a decent track record. I was starting to think he was the next coming of Hitler.
But he’s merely a good speaker, not one for the ages like Hitler. And we’ve heard this before. And the failures of Trump have sheered off some people whose minds were only partly poisoned and they recovered some dignity.
‘I’m Roy Moore and I own a nickel plated 5 shot. Vote for Me?’
And Bannon Failed Big. The people of Alabama found a way to send the Democrat, Doug Jones, to Washington instead of rotten ol’ Roy Moore. Their first democratic senator in a generation.
Alabama is a ruby red Hater State where a bunch of small minded religious bigots spend their time trying to tell everyone how to live. Their 18th century views are a stain on the national discourse and dammit it took a CHILD MOLESTER to stop them voting republican. Was it hubris on Bannon’s part? I think that’s possible.
Right now Bannon’s looking like a really inept self promoter. It’s gotta a tough sell, his product was, after all, disproven by World War 2!
Bannon’s greasy paw prints are all over this Implosion. There were a few normal people that just got lost in the shuffle once Bannon started carping for Moore to be the guy. And he was good enough at influencing people to get that. It proved a Pyrrhic Victory. If he didn’t have terrible judgement he’d be much more dangerous. He chose the wrong battle and was beaten like the Germans at Stalingrad.
And now, 30 dollar K mart jacket and all, he begins a descent. Will he land in prison? Maybe for a while. Then, if he does get out, I suppose if he’s allowed around computers, he likely ends up a 21st Century Internet version of vintage hater, the Nazi subsidized Father Coughlin , another disgraceful Irish guy.
Donald Trump is running up to what he now calls the “ridiculous” self-imposed 100 Day Mark of Assessment. The First 100 Days is actually we’ve thrown at every president at least as far back as FDR. The fact that Trump himself set so many lofty 100 Day Goals (and a bunch of unfulfilled day 1 goals) that had he reached his benchmark we’d be in a totally transformed world.
A simple look around tells us few things are much different outside an On and Off Travel Ban and sporadic ICE Raids that first draw a first splash of publicity and then an open firehouse of flaming kerosene worth of bad backlash.
Mr Charming, Donald Trump.
Trumps petulance, immaturity, apparent ADHD and innumerable gaffes have all been a problem but deep unpopularity is probably what stopped Trump agenda items like The Obamacare Repeal and Replace Disaster that managed only to galvanize the dazed and disparate ranks of Trump Resistance.
The biggest thing stopping The Trump Agenda is probably his lack of popularity. Let me put that another way – his STUNNING LACK of Popularity is all thats saving us from Trumps Awful Ideas.
As president-elect he was first clueless and then imperious. Breaking rules and ruffling feathers. But none of this translated to momentum. Until he managed to put all future accomplishments in deep jeopardy by altering the rules of the Senate to jam Neil Gorsuch onto the Supreme Court the High Water Mark of the Trump Administration might just have been installing highly unpopular right wing christian ideologue Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education.
CNN today reported that 53% of Americans Disapprove of President Trump. There’s few polls with any scientific validity that show him anything but underwater. This awful number is actually the result of a slow upward rally since Trump started piece meal attacking countries his daughter finds objectionable about 2 weeks ago. He was diving below later Watergate Nixon before then
SO WHO WAS THE LEAST POPULAR PRESIDENT?
According to Gallup it’s Truman.
Harry S Truman existed at an unbelievable 22% for a chunk of his presidency but was reelected in that time. He remains the president to tally the very lowest approval. Lower than Watergate Era Nixon. It seems inaccurate and likely is.
Truman’s been around over 100 Days when Gallup starts polling. The Truman number was most likely actually proof of flaws in that era’s polling. I call it “The Honeymooners Theory”.
The basic assertion is by looking the TV families of the time we can get a clue how life was in the 1950’s and there’s a couple of different classes represented. They show an economically diverse country even within the same city.
The Kramden’s Not So Nice Apartment
The classic show the Honeymooners is from the 50’s and shows 2 working class couples in what was then the not so well off Borough of Brooklyn in New York City. The Kramdens were just scraping by but their friends the Norton’s were doing a bit better.
If you loved the show you will recall that there’s an episode where the Kramdens get a phone. The phones gone after that episode. The Kramdens made calls (and watched what little TV they could) at the Norton’s apartment upstairs. In other episodes we have Norton climbing through the fire escape window with an occasional message for Ralph or Alice.
The Honeymooners was funny and pertinent because it was pretty realistic. Most related to their lives and many to their circumstances.
So typical Americans had a 50-50 chance of having a phone in what was a believable comedy. Its important to remember that the idea they needed to use the Norton’s phone was never seen as overly strange or cause for shame. The Kramdens were of modest means and who knows, maybe their saving for a baby one day. Well folks, the analogy goes to I Love Lucy now.
The Ricardo’s were geographically close contemporaries of the Kramdens but lived in the Murray Hill section of Manhattan. Still a desirable address. The Ricardo’s have a phone (an awesome princess phone in fact). The Mertz’s probably had one too, I just don’t remember. Fred was cheap but he also was a landlord and I can’t see how he wouldn’t have needed a phone for his business (which seemed to run itself). I’m writing the Mertz’s off for this example.
Anyway the bottom line is even my mom and dad get to the late 50’s when Eisenhower is president (also living in NYC) before both families manage to have phones and televisions.
So Ralph and Alice Kramden would NEVER have a voice in a poll of their time but the Norton’s would. Lucy and Ricky would. There were just so many people of modest of even entering middle class who couldn’t afford these “Utilities” which were then actually LUXURIES.
Bottom Line- Hey you don’t have to be a pollster to see that the polls on Truman were off. Probably WAY OFF! He was probably close to or above 50% but just never fared well in a ‘random’ sampling of Americans skewed towards the wealthy or at least those entering middle class like the Norton’s.
People with money have generally always tended to be more Conservative and in America that means more likely to be Republicans. After all you have a TV and a phone and half your neighbors didn’t. You actually probably hosted a small gathering so everyone you knew could watch ‘I Love Lucy’ and love YOU for it!
SO WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT TRUMP NOW AND IN THE FUTURE?
Well the undeniable Fact is ‘There’s no way to know if he’s the most unpopular president ever until he makes it below 22%.” Since he seems Baked In at about 30% no matter what it’s probably unlikely he will be the holder of any kind of Unified Title of Infamy.
Trends in media and mass culture over about a hundred years are enlightening.
Initially the master of the print interview had the political edge. Newspapers were cheap and very available up until the 1970s.
Kindred Spirits
By the time JFK takes office the phone and TV situation was a complete transformation from 10 years earlier. People watched the Twilight Zone in their own homes with just their families. By the time Star Trek debuts like 70% of America has
Tanking Out on TV
at least 1 TV. About 10% of America is blind and wouldn’t need a TV just for perspective. About 10% more have dementia and wouldn’t know if they had a TV or not. So basically everyone had a TV.
So by about 1960 polling and reality converge as far as Accuracy. We can sort of have more faith in the scientific aspect of these polls. The opposite of this happens around 2000 when many switch to having only a cell phone with an unlisted number and polling strives to adjust. But we have a huge chunk of time there where we can rely on the polls.
More bad news for Trump is that for the moment it appears the polling methods have again gotten to a place where they are accurate refelections of the National Zeitgeist.
Wrapping up you know now why they always add “of any modern president” to the super bad approval ratings Trump is garnering. And its probably the polling. The Truman Era Gallup poll is disproved by his re-election. Its interesting that Truman just ignored everything and Whistle Stopped and made a speech EVERYWHERE he could get his train. He obviously swayed the phoneless, TV-less people he spent lots of time talking to.
Could it work again to re-elect Trump? lets see him avoid jail for the next four years but the answer is likely “No”.
I guess we should remember that seeing the president of the United States move and
People were just wild to see Harry
talk was almost exclusively something you had to go to the Movie Theater for when HST just talks to anyone who will listen in PERSON all over the place. I ‘m sure everyone in Duluth, Montana found their way to the train station to see “Give ‘Em Hell Harry”.
Shit’s different now.
Trump is already campaigning openly for re-election. But now everyone has a TV and a phone. Hell, they’re now almost the same damn thing! And Trump pounds that phone with non stop tweeting. Love him or hate him he’s familiar. He boasts Expert TV and social media trolling skills. In fact the election of Trump in 2016 spoke to a theory I had since college – Whoever Dominates and Best Uses the newest form of Mass Culture Media will have an exceptional Ride.
Hitler was maybe the first guy to lie to people’s faces via radio and movie newsreels and later outright State Made Propaganda, he also manages to gain ultimate power (sadly). In America the personable Franklin Roosevelt manages to charm America and win the presidency….four times. He’s noted for being a great personality on Radio, the dominant form of mass culture at the time. Fireside Chats and the Declaration of War on Japan were shining examples.
JFK was a master of television. He changes the face of his election by decimating Dick Nixon in a TV debate that on paper Nixon sort of won. Radio listeners preferred Nixon’s performance too. But he looked like shit so people tuned him out when they saw him on TV. Kennedy goes on to appear regularly on TV like no president does again until Reagan. Nixon notably NEVER gets TV at all and goes down in a scandal that might have gone away if he cultivated any media friends.
The “Best Candidate on TV” is still a real thing and lets face it Hillary NEVER established anything like the Trump Twitter Storms. We saw Trump using his Twitter to co-opt the news. As a guy who was illegally using Rolling Stones Music in the campaign and loving it he surely knew the old saying “There’s NO Such Thing as Bad Publicity”. He sort of sucks the air out of all conversation throughout the campaign and benefits from it.
Media and Social Media are changing fast these days. Can angry septuagenarian Trump continue to stay out ahead of the curve and pre-emptively destroy conversations and derail news with his Twitter? Probably not. TV is somewhat wise to him. Now he can tweet but the media walks and chews gum at the same time.
24 Hour News now can address a brash claim and then still focus on Russia in the same 15 minutes. That 15 minutes is more than HALF of ALL news Americans would get via broadcast TV in 1970.
So how’s the Future look for Trumps popularity? Probably Not Good. Don’t write off him diving to 30% and just staying there.
Donald Trump has only one plan- That he can easily take more horribleness than anyone else and that Horribleness will likely continue on Full Display.
He is, for now still not the most Unpopular President ever and polling anomalies may be the only reason why.
just don’t remember. Fred was cheap but he also was a landlord and I can’t see how he wouldn’t have needed a phone for his business (which seemed to run itself). I’m writing the Mertz’s off for this example.
